Introduction

The paper “Using Satellite Imagery and a Farmer Registry to Assess Agricultural Support in Conflict Settings: The Case of the Producer Support Grant Program in Ukraine” explores how digital tools can enhance the effectiveness of agricultural support in a conflict-affected environment. With the backdrop of the Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine, the study examines the role of the State Agrarian Register (SAR) and satellite imagery in targeting and evaluating the impact of the Producer Support Grant (PSG) program.

This research is significant because it demonstrates a practical approach to address the challenges of targeting and assessing interventions in complex and insecure settings. The integration of administrative data with remote sensing offers a scalable and transparent method for monitoring program outcomes and informing policy decisions.

Key Insights

The State Agrarian Register (SAR)

The SAR, a digital farmer registry in Ukraine, played a crucial role in the targeting and evaluation of the Producer Support Grant (PSG) program. It provides a platform for farmers to register their land and access support programs.

Producer Support Grant (PSG)

The PSG program provided cash grants to small farmers (below 120 ha) proportional to the amount of land cultivated. The intervention targeted working capital support in response to disruptions caused by the war.

Satellite Imagery

Satellite imagery was used to assess the impact of the PSG program on area cultivated. This method allowed for remote monitoring and verification of land use in a conflict setting.

Key Statistics & Data

• The Producer Support Grant (PSG) program in Ukraine distributed $50 million to producers.
• The PSG grant led to an $86 increase per hectare in area cultivated with summer crops.
• The programme was found to have increased 2023 summer crop area significantly although with 0.17 ha, i.e., less than 2%, estimated effect size remains modest.
• Damages to the agricultural capital stock are estimated at US$ 10.3 billion, 57% is for machinery, 18% for storage facilities, and the remainder for outputs, inputs, and crops or livestock.
• Before the war, agriculture contributed about 10% to GDP and 42% of the country’s exports.

Methodology

The study employs a difference-in-differences design, comparing changes in area cultivated between PSG recipients and eligible non-recipients before and after the program’s implementation. The analysis leverages panel data from 2019 to 2023, combining administrative data from the SAR with satellite-derived crop maps. Entropy matching is used to improve comparability between treatment and control groups.

The regressions specification used in the paper is as follows: Yit = ai + PSG¡ * Post + Xity + t + Eit

where Yit is the area cultivated with summer crops in t, a¡ is a farm fixed effect; PSG; is an indicator variable that equals one if farm i participated in the PSG program and zero otherwise; Post indicates timing after the PSG program had been implemented in 2023; Xij is a vector containing levels and squares of weather variables.

Applications

The approach used in this paper has several applications for digital development, Digital Public Goods (DPGs) and Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI):

• Targeted agricultural support: Digital registries can improve the targeting of agricultural support programs, ensuring that resources reach the intended beneficiaries.
• Remote monitoring and evaluation: Satellite imagery provides a cost-effective means of monitoring program outcomes and verifying land use in remote or insecure areas.
• Transparent governance: The use of digital platforms and verifiable data can enhance transparency and accountability in government programs.
• Scalable solutions: The combination of digital registries and remote sensing offers a scalable approach to monitoring and evaluating interventions across large populations and geographic areas.
• DPGs and DPI for agriculture: The SAR and similar registries can be developed as DPGs, providing a foundation for building DPI for agriculture, including farmer identification, land registration, and market access.

Related Resources

• Digital Identity for Inclusive Social Protection: Farmer registries can be linked to digital identity systems to improve targeting and reduce fraud.
• Cash Assistance: The PSG program is an example of cash assistance being used to support agricultural production in a crisis.