Introduction
This review examines the application of Theory of Change (ToC) within international development, offering insights into its practical use and perceived benefits. It was commissioned by the UK Department for International Development (DFID) to explore how ToC is being utilized across various organizations and to inform a more consistent approach within DFID’s programming. This document is a valuable resource for practitioners and policymakers aiming to understand the role and application of ToC in enhancing program design, implementation, and evaluation. It will help the reader understand and improve their development outcomes using a ToC approach.
Key Insights
Theory of Change Requires Logical Thinking and Deeper Critical Reflection
Theory of change draws its methodological credentials from a long-standing area of evaluation which deals with programme theories. It is also informed by an equally long-standing development practice - reflective practice for empowerment and social change.
Theory of Change Inspires and Supports Innovation and Improvement in Programmes
The central idea in theory of change thinking is making assumptions explicit. Assumptions act as ‘rules of thumb’ that influence our choices, as individuals and organisations.
Theory of Change is Both a Process and a Product
The review’s findings emphasize that ToC should be seen as an on-going process of discussion-based analysis and learning. This should produce powerful insights to support programme design, strategy, implementation, evaluation and impact assessment, communicated through diagrams and narratives which are updated at regular intervals.
What is ‘Theory of Change’?
Two definitions of theory of change have recently been put forward that reflect both the process mapping and reflective aspects of a theory of change approach:
Rick Davies, an influential monitoring and evaluation specialist, defines a theory of change simply as:
‘The description of a sequence of events that is expected to lead to a particular desired outcome³
The Comic Relief review puts forward a learning-based defined theory of change as:
‘Theory of change is an on-going process of reflection to explore change and how it happens - and what that means for the part we play in a particular context, sector and/or group of people.
Variations in Theories of Change
In very general terms, differences can be observed between donor-level organizations and foundations, implementing agencies, civil society organizations, and evaluators, although in practice these are often merged. These can be grouped into three broad categories:
- Country, sector and/or policy archetypal theories of change
- Implementing agencies’ theories of change
- Causal maps for evaluators
Donor Agencies are Adapting Log-frame Planning
Donor agencies are adapting their logical framework planning approaches in recognition of the ‘missing middle’ issue. For example, the German development cooperation agency GIZ emphasises ‘use of outputs’ as an intermediate outcome. Swedish development agency SIDA is working with a new approach that encourages programmes to express a medium-term change that ‘bridges’ from project outputs to higher-level outcomes and emphasising what is at least in reasonable control of the programme’s influence.
Donors Need to be Adaptive
Donors and funders need to allow theory of change thinking to be flexible and not prescriptive if it is to support more strategic adaptations to changes in the context. As had been said before, the idea is not to create intricate logic models that ‘lock-in’ what has to be achieved to an inappropriate level of detail.
Key Statistics & Data
- The reviewer conducted 40 interviews with staff from 25 development organisations, including 9 donor agencies, 7 international NGOS and 9 research and training organisations (see Appendix 3 for a list of people and organisations).
- DFID has been working formally with theory of change in in its programming since 2010.
Methodology
The review involved 40 interviews with staff from 25 development organizations and a light-touch review of published and grey literature on theory of change.
Implications and Conclusions
Theory of change thinking can be a valuable tool for international development practitioners, but it should be used flexibly and adapted to the specific context of each programme. Donors and funders should also be open to challenging different viewpoints and should not impose rigid models of change. The theory or theories of change will evolve if they continue to act as a foil for critical thinking, and others contribute to it. Evidence and learning, insights from stakeholders, experience and implementation should continue inform new discussions. It should be considered as a flexible ‘rough guide’ that offers a unique set of perspectives, not a definitive, static prediction.
Key Points
- Theory of Change (ToC) is a flexible approach to think through fundamental issues of a programme and to create better informed hypotheses of change.
- The implementation of a Theory of Change requires performance management approaches that accommodate uncertainty and flexibility.
- Visual representations are useful to communicate the conceptual analysis, but should be regarded as only one aspect of the ‘theory of change'.
- Assumptions are the 'theories' in theory of change thinking, and they are hard to access because they are deeply held perceptions that have become 'rules of thumb' that are taken for granted.
- The analysis of complicated and complex aspects of programmes fit well with looking at theory of change thinking as a 'learning lens' that invites dialogue and triangulation from a number of viewpoints and sources of evidence.
- To benefit from on-going learning, donors and grant-makers need to see themselves as actors 'in the picture', not outside it.
- Working with theory of change thinking can be challenging but it can create a strong organising framework to improve programme design, implementation, evaluation and learning