Food Security Update

This document offers a snapshot of the global food security situation as of September 26, 2024. It examines trends in agricultural commodity prices, food price inflation, and food crises across various regions. The update serves as a concise overview for policymakers, economists, and stakeholders involved in addressing food security challenges.

Key Insights

Global Market Outlook

Since the last update on June 27, 2024, the agricultural and export price indices closed 1 and 2 percent higher, respectively; the cereal index was unchanged. Maize and rice prices closed 3 percent and 4 percent lower, respectively, and wheat closed 8 percent higher. On a year-on-year basis, maize prices are 17 percent lower, wheat prices 4 percent lower, and rice prices 3 percent lower. Maize prices are 7 percent higher than in January 2020, wheat prices 3 percent higher, and rice prices 41 percent higher.

Food Price Inflation Dashboard

Domestic food price inflation (measured as year-on-year change in the food component of a country’s Consumer Price Index (CPI)) remains high. Information from the latest month between May and August 2024 for which food price inflation data are available shows high inflation in many low- and middle-income countries (Figure 2a), with inflation higher than 5 percent in 77.3 percent of low-income countries (18.2 percentage points higher since the last update on June 27, 2024), 54.3 percent of lower-middle-income countries (8.7 percentage points lower), 44.0 percent of upper-middle-income countries (8.0 percentage points higher), and 10.7 percent of high-income countries (0.2 percentage points lower). In real terms, food price inflation exceeded overall inflation (measured as year-on-year change in the overall CPI) in 55.6 percent of the 167 countries for which food CPI and overall CPI indexes are both available (Figure 2b).

Emerging Issues: Escalating Global Food Crises

The Global Report on Food Crises 2024 Mid-Year Update highlights alarming trends in acute food insecurity and malnutrition as of August 2024 following high levels in 2023. The number of people projected to be in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) conditions has surged from 705,000 in 2023 to 1.9 million in 2024. Conflicts in Sudan and the Gaza Strip, leading to extreme food shortages and heightened mortality risks, are the primary drivers of this increase. In Sudan, it is expected that approximately 755,300 people will face Catastrophe conditions by September 2024 and that more than 1.1 million were in this state in Gaza during March and April 2024.

Challenges and Pathways to Achieve Zero Hunger in 2024

The State of Food Insecurity and Nutrition in the World 2024 reveals significant challenges in achieving SDG 2-Zero Hunger. Despite some progress in specific regions, global undernourishment remains alarmingly persistent, with an estimated 713 million to 757 million people affected in 2023-one in eleven people globally and one in five in Africa (Figure 4).

Global Commodity Market Trends and Agricultural Forecasts for September 2024

With the end of the year approaching, 2024 is likely to be one of the warmest years on record, the AMIS Market Monitor for September 2024 highlights significant impacts on global commodity markets. Recent weather patterns have had mixed effects on agricultural production forecasts: maize output is projected to decrease because of heat affecting the European Union, Mexico, and Ukraine, whereas soybean production is expected to rise thanks to favorable conditions in the United States.

Regional Updates: East and Southern Africa

Food insecurity in East and Southern Africa is concentrated in specific countries, driven by drought and conflict. An estimated 80 million people in East and Southern Africa will be food insecure by February 2025.

Regional Updates: East Asia and the Pacific

East Asian and Pacific countries are experiencing continuing rising food prices. In Indonesia, rice prices have been rising steadily-by more than 10 percent in the past year.

Regional Updates: Europe and Central Asia

On September 13, the European Commission authorized EU member states to pay higher advances of Common Agriculture Policy funds to agricultural producers, helping address liquidity problems that many face, mainly because of extreme weather events that have affected yields in recent years, high interest rates on European financial markets, and high prices of agricultural inputs and commodities.

Regional Updates: Latin America and the Caribbean

The latest domestic food price warnings from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (September 12, 2024) maintain a high price warning for bread in Argentina, where retail prices of bread (French type) continued to rise in July, reflecting tight seasonal wheat supplies from the low 2022 and 2023 outputs and high transport and milling costs.

Regional Updates: Middle East and North Africa

The latest IPC analysis for June through September 2024 projects that 96 percent of the Gazan population will face acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3+).

Regional Updates: West and Central Africa

Extreme weather events are significantly increasing food insecurity across West Africa, prompting several countries in the region to declare states of emergency.

Trade Policy Responses

Trade policies are a major source of risk for global food price stability. As of September 2024, 16 countries had implemented 22 food export bans, and 8 had implemented 15 export-limiting measures.

Key Statistics & Data

• Agricultural and export price indices increased by 1% and 2% respectively since June 27, 2024.
• The number of people in IPC Phase 5 has surged to 1.9 million in 2024, up from 705,000 in 2023.
• An estimated 713 to 757 million people were affected by undernourishment in 2023.
• Conflicts in Sudan and Gaza are primary drivers of increased food insecurity.
• 77.3% of low-income countries experienced food inflation higher than 5% between May and August 2024.
• In Sudan, 25.6 million people have been experiencing acute food insecurity during the June to September lean season, a 26 percent increase from the previous year.
• In Gaza, all 2.2 million residents need urgent food and livelihood assistance as of early 2024.
• In East and Southern Africa, an estimated 80 million people will be food insecure by February 2025.
• In Indonesia, rice prices have increased by more than 10% in the past year.
• Globally, more than 350,000 wildfires were reported between January and September 2024.
• 96% of the Gazan population will face acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3+) in June-September 2024.

Implications and Conclusions

The Food Security Update paints a complex picture of global food security in late 2024. While global markets show some stability, domestic food price inflation and regional crises continue to pose significant challenges, particularly for low- and middle-income countries. Conflict and extreme weather events are major drivers of food insecurity, requiring targeted interventions and humanitarian assistance. The report emphasizes the urgent need for transformative action to achieve Zero Hunger by 2030, highlighting the importance of resilient agrifood systems and equitable access to healthy diets. The rise in export bans is also a concerning trend, and it has the potential to destabilize global prices.