This document provides a systematic review and meta-analysis of global food security projections to 2050, based on 57 studies published between 2000 and early 2018. It assesses the range of future projections for global food demand and the population at risk of hunger under different socio-economic and climate change scenarios. The results can be used to benchmark new projections and inform policy debates.
Key Insights
Global Food Demand: Projected Increase
The total global food demand is projected to increase by 35% to 56% between 2010 and 2050. This increase is influenced by various socio-economic pathways and their assumptions about population growth, income, and consumption patterns. Climate change factors can slightly alter these ranges.
Population at Risk of Hunger: Variable Outcomes
The population at risk of hunger is expected to change by -91% to +8% over the same period. Climate change considerations slightly modify these ranges to -91% to +30%. The variability depends heavily on the scenarios considered, ranging from sustainable development to regional rivalry.
Driving Forces and Uncertainties
Differences in methods, assumptions regarding driving forces, and definitions of output indicators lead to significant variations in study results. The study emphasizes the importance of understanding these differences when comparing food security projections.
Harmonization with SSPs and RCPs
The study maps projections to the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to harmonize and compare results across different studies. This approach helps to assess the uncertainty and range of potential outcomes based on different future scenarios.
FAO Projection vs. Study Findings
The widely cited FAO projection, which estimates that world food production needs to increase by 70% by 2050, is higher than the study’s findings. This difference is attributed to the use of an earlier base year (2005/2007) in the FAO projection and the use of food prices as weights instead of calorie-based measures.
Impact of Climate Change
While climate change impacts are considered, the pairwise comparison did not provide strong evidence that climate change results in significantly different patterns of food demand compared with scenarios without climate change.
Key Statistics & Data
- Global Food Demand Increase (2010-2050): 35% to 56% (without climate change), 30% to 62% (with climate change)
- Population at Risk of Hunger Change (2010-2050): -91% to +8% (without climate change), -91% to +30% (with climate change)
- SSP1 (Sustainability): Total food consumption increase of +41%
- SSP2 (Middle of the Road): Total food consumption increase of +51%
Methodology
The study employs a systematic literature review approach to identify and collect relevant studies published between 2000 and early 2018. A meta-analysis is then conducted to assess the range of global food security projections for the period 2010-2050. The projections are harmonized by mapping them to the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). A linear mixed model is used for the meta-regression analysis.
Implications and Conclusions
The study’s findings highlight the wide range of potential outcomes for global food demand and hunger risk, depending on the socio-economic and climate scenarios considered. The results suggest that previous estimates, such as the FAO’s 70% increase in food production, may be overstated. The study underscores the importance of using quantitative scenario analysis to inform policy analysis, coordination, and planning for food and wider societal issues, especially given the uncertainties introduced by events like the coronavirus pandemic.
Key Points
- Total global food demand is projected to increase by 35% to 56% between 2010 and 2050 across various socio-economic scenarios.
- Population at risk of hunger is projected to change by -91% to +8% between 2010 and 2050, with climate change slightly altering these ranges.
- The study identifies that differences in methods, assumptions, and scenario storylines contribute to the wide variation in food security projections.
- The Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are used to harmonize and compare projections across studies.
- Business-as-usual scenarios may no longer be plausible due to the impacts of the coronavirus pandemic on global development and food systems.
- The FAO's projection of a 70% increase in food production by 2050 is higher than the study's findings, mainly due to differences in base years and measurement methods.
- The study emphasizes the need for quantitative scenario analysis to inform policy, coordination, and planning for food security.