This document provides a comprehensive assessment of global labor market trends and their social outcomes, offering insights into the challenges and opportunities facing policymakers. It analyzes key indicators such as unemployment, job creation, labor force participation, and hours worked, linking these trends with their social implications. This analysis is valuable for policy formation and for understanding the lives of individuals affected by these developments.
Key Insights
Labor market resilience will be tested in the near term
Growth has proved to be resilient amidst rising fragility and Economic resilience held labor market conditions steady in 2023. Looking ahead, there are risks that job creation will deteriorate further and Persistent decent work deficits are undermining long-run progress
Employment and social trends by region
Overview of Employment and social trends by region in Africa, Americas, Arab States, Asia and the Pacific, Europe and Central Asia
Labour shortages amidst unmet demand for decent work
A growing demand for labour , Labour demand: Unfilled vacancies in advanced economies , Local and global consequences of labour and skills shortages, Labour supply , Labour force participation: Are fewer people working or looking for jobs?, Hours worked: Mean and total hours have diverged , Do labour markets fail to adjust?, Labour shortages might become entrenched
Key Statistics & Data
- Global unemployment rate in 2023: 5.1%, a modest improvement on 2022.
- The global jobs gap in 2023: close to 435 million.
- Increase in number of workers living in moderate poverty in 2023: about 8.4 million.
- Informal employment rates have returned close to pre-pandemic levels, with 2 billion informal workers in 2023.
- Projected global unemployment rate in 2024: 5.2%.
- Number of unemployed people expected in 2024: 190.8 million.
- Percentage of global employment expected to remain informally employed in 2024: around 58%.
Methodology
The ILO modelled estimates presented in this report were produced by the Data Production and Analysis Unit, led by Steven Kapsos, in the ILO Department of Statistics and by the Macro-economic Policies and Jobs Unit of the ILO Research Department. The authors especially acknowledge the modelling work carried out by Evangelia Bourmpoula, Paloma Carrillo, Roger Gomis, Stefan Kühn, Avichal Mahajan and Miguel Sanchez Martinez.
Implications and Conclusions
The report concludes that the labor market outlook is set to deteriorate moderately in the near future. The report suggests that Governments need to strengthen their domestic economy through initiatives to raise productivity growth and living standards. To this end, governments and social partners could make use of existing international cooperation instruments to foster regional productivity initiatives, for instance by strengthening global skills partnerships. Although governments have returned to the commanding heights of the economy, their resources have been depleted, especially in low- and middle-income countries.
Key Points
- Global unemployment dropped to its lowest level since the start of the pandemic in 2023, but projections suggest little positive change in 2024.
- Productivity growth and living standards have not improved despite technological progress, and technology roll-out could widen disparities.
- Insufficient pay, poor job quality, and major inequalities are essential components in building social justice and tackling major problems like climate change.
- The report calls for coordinated and mutually reinforcing policies at both country and multilateral levels, extending to the allocation of financial and technological resources.
- The ILO's Governing Body endorsed a Global Coalition for Social Justice to facilitate coordination and promote human-focused approaches for a sustainable global recovery.
- Real wages declined in the majority of G20 countries as wage increases failed to keep pace with inflation.
- Labor imbalances are compounded by weak productivity growth and lower average hours worked.