Theory of Change

This document provides a guide to developing Theories of Change (ToC) for planning and evaluation in social development. It outlines key elements, practical tips, and considerations for implementing a ToC approach. This resource is especially relevant for civil society organizations and development practitioners seeking to improve their strategic planning and demonstrate impact.

Key Insights

Identifying How Change Happens

Developing a Theory of Change involves analyzing the forces that can affect desired outcomes (Jones 2010). This includes assessing factors in the external context that can help or hinder change, identifying who has the power to influence change, and determining what or who needs to change and at what levels.

Identifying Your Own Role

This stage involves explicitly identifying an organization’s or program’s contribution to change. The purpose is to identify which changes the organization can contribute to directly or indirectly and which areas are beyond their scope.

Developing a Conceptual Pathway

Once there is clarity about the potential roles that an organization can play, the next stage involves identifying an achievable long-term goal, clarifying the key changes needed for this goal to be realized, and agreeing on who the organization needs to work with, what changes are required in their knowledge/attitudes/skills/behavior, and what activities are needed to contribute to those desired changes.

Identifying Assumptions

A critical part of Theory of Change thinking is articulating assumptions, which are conditions necessary for change at one level to influence change at another level. Theory of Change thinking encourages testing these assumptions throughout an organization or program’s lifetime.

Ongoing Monitoring of Change

Regular monitoring of change forms an important part of Theory of Change thinking. This enables organizations to assess where change is happening and where it is not and to track progress towards their longer-term goals or impact (James 2011).

Critically Reflecting

Critical reflection is vital to Theory of Change thinking. Monitoring and evaluating change and reflecting on critical assumptions should lead an organization to question itself regularly. Important questions to ask include: Is the Theory of Change still valid? Is the organization/programme working with the right people in the right way? What needs to change in the understanding of how change happens, or an organization or programme’s specific role within that?

Key Statistics & Data

• The term ‘Theory of Change’ first emerged in the 1990s.
• Theory of Change can be seen as an “on-going process of discussion-based analysis and learning that produces powerful insights to support programme design, strategy, implementation, evaluation and impact assessment (Vogel 2012, p5).”
• INTRAC provided specialist support in monitoring and evaluation since 1992.

Methodology

The paper provides a conceptual overview and synthesis of existing literature and practices related to Theory of Change. It draws upon the authors’ experience in facilitating Theory of Change processes with civil society organizations.

Implications and Conclusions

Theory of Change provides an opportunity to think more clearly and strategically about how to contribute to significant, lasting changes for real people. It requires a commitment to take a ‘reflective, critical and honest approach’ to answer difficult questions about how efforts might influence change.